This Sunday will see the awards ceremony for the 2017
Academy Awards, and this year has been more contentious than most. Who will
win? More importantly, who should win?
Below, I share my thoughts on how you can game your office's Oscar pool.
(It should be noted that I have seen nearly every nominated film, but a couple slipped through the cracks. The only films I haven't seen are: Fire at Sea; My Life as a Zucchini; Land of Mine.)
(It should be noted that I have seen nearly every nominated film, but a couple slipped through the cracks. The only films I haven't seen are: Fire at Sea; My Life as a Zucchini; Land of Mine.)
Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Moonlight
Other nominees: Arrival;
Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; Lion; Manchester by
the Sea
The three top contenders for Best Picture are La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by
the Sea, and the overwhelming awards season love for La La Land is likely to carry it to a Best Picture victory.
Personally, I'm just fine with that, as there are some much worse nominees up
for consideration, but for my money Moonlight
was the best film of the year, for the performances, direction, editing and
writing are some of the best the year had to offer.
Directing
Will Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Other nominees: Denis Villeneuve – Arrival; Mel Gibson - Hacksaw
Ridge; Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester
by the Sea
Chazelle is likely to win for his feel-good mastery of
choreography and integrating music into his kinetic throwback to Golden Age
Hollywood, but I can't help but feel that Jenkins is, once again, more
deserving. I can maybe see a world where the Academy divides the pie by giving La La Land Best Picture and reserving
the Directing award for Jenkins, but that may just be wishful thinking on my
part.
Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win: Denzel Washington – Fences
Leigh's Pick: Denzel Washington – Fences
Other nominees: Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea; Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling – La
La Land; Viggo Mortensen – Captain
Fantastic
Casey Affleck seemed like the clear frontrunner for this
award until the Screen Actors Guild gave the prize to Washington. Considering
the massive overlap between SAG and the Academy's voting body, Washington seems
likely to win, and I agree with that choice. Affleck was the best part of Manchester by the Sea, but Fences was built entirely on its
performances and wouldn't have been a successful film otherwise. Washington
nailed it.
Actress in a Leading Role
Will Win: Emma Stone – La
La Land
Leigh's Pick: Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Other nominees: Ruth Negga – Loving; Natalie Portman – Jackie;
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
The SAG Awards highlighted Stone as the frontrunner in this
category, but frankly I just don't see it. Natalie Portman in Jackie and Isabelle Huppert in Elle are the clear frontrunners in terms
of overall quality, but I must give my preference to Huppert's darkly complex
portrait of a disturbing woman coping with the consequences of her own rape.
It's a masterful performance that deserves every recognition.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Leigh's Pick: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Other nominees: Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel – Lion; Michael Shannon – Nocturnal
Animals
As far as I'm concerned, this one is a no brainer. As great
as Michael Shannon and Jeff Bridges were in their respective films, Mahershala
Ali's portrayal of a sympathetic drug dealer and father figure to a young
fatherless gay kid was truly inspired. Between Moonlight and Luke Cage,
Ali had a killer year as a performer, and he deserves every accolade he gets.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Will Win: Viola Davis – Fences
Leigh's Pick: Viola Davis – Fences
Other nominees: Naomie Harris – Moonlight; Nicole Kidman – Lion;
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures;
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Though I object to Davis's categorization as a supporting
actress, she gave the single most powerful performance of the listed nominees.
Her strongest competition is likely Michelle Williams, but if there were ever a
dark horse in this race, it's Naomie Harris for her role in Moonlight. Regardless, this is one of
the most competitive races this year in terms of raw quality of performance.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Hell or
High Water
Other nominees: The
Lobster; Manchester by the Sea; 20th Century Women
If La La Land
doesn't win, I guarantee that Manchester
by the Sea will, but I genuinely think that Hell or High Water had the snappiest dialogue and the best thematic
underpinnings of the bunch. It may not be the favorite to win, but it's a film
that I intend to revisit more often than either of the frontrunners, and that's
due largely to the intelligence of the social commentary at play in Hell or High Water's screenplay.
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Moonlight
Leigh's Pick: Moonlight
Other nominees: Arrival;
Fences; Hidden Figures; Lion
I've gone on record with my dissent toward categorizing Moonlight as an adapted screenplay, but
here we are, and that recategorization makes it the clear frontrunner. Were it
not for Moonlight, Arrival would be the likely winner, but Moonlight is a transcendent piece of
cinema that deserves recognition as such, particularly for a screenplay that
knows the Black and queer experiences back to front and communicates them in
empathetic and compelling detail.
Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Leigh's Pick: The
Salesman
Other nominees: Land
of Mine; A Man Called Ove; Tanna
Between Elle being
the biggest Oscar snub of the year and Toni
Erdmann getting a U.S. remake later this year, it seems pretty unlikely
that anything other than Toni Erdmann
will take the top prize. The Salesman
could pull an upset victory in solidarity with Iranian filmmaker’s Asghar
Farhadi’s decision to not attend the Oscars in protest of the Muslim immigration
ban, and I think that win would actually be much more deserved, as the The Salesman is a tighter, more resonant
story than any of the competitors.
Animated Feature Film
Will Win: Zootopia
Leigh's Pick: Zootopia
Other nominees: Kubo
and the Two Strings; Moana; My Life as a Zucchini; The Red Turtle
It's really tempting to want Kubo and the Two Strings to win based purely on being a different
sort of contender compared to the more conventionally animated competition, but
hands down, Zootopia deserves the
win. Its brilliant world-building and biting commentary on American race
relations make it not only one of the best animated films of the year, but one
of the best films of the year, period.
Animated Short Subject
Will Win: Piper
Leigh's Pick: Piper
Other nominees: Blind
Vaysha; Borrowed Time; Pear Cider and Cigarettes; Pearl
The short subject categories are infamously hard to predict,
and the animated shorts in particular this year run a wide gamut of styles and
structures, making it hard to weigh them against one another in any sort of
measure of which is empirically “best.” Personally, I found Borrowed Time and Pear Cider and Cigarettes to be pretty worthy contenders, but one
can’t deny the inherent Pixar charm of Piper,
and when betting on an uncertain race, Pixar is the horse in which you invest
your hopes.
Documentary Feature
Will Win: O.J.: Made
in America
Leigh's Pick: I Am Not
Your Negro
Other nominees: Fire
at Sea; Life, Animated; 13th
O.J.: Made in America
is a great documentary, but I object to its inclusion as a nominee because it
is clearly structured as a five part miniseries for television broadcast, not
as a seven and a half hour film. Even so, it's likely to win, and it's not even
the best documentary on the list. Both 13th
and I Am Not Your Negro are more
powerful experiences, and the latter is such a raw emotional punch in the gut
that I can't help but root for it.
Documentary Short Subject
Will Win: Watani: My
Homeland
Leigh's Pick: Watani:
My Homeland
Other nominees: Extremis;
4.1 Miles; Joe's Violin; The White Helmets
Three of the nominees this year deal with the bombing of
Aleppo, refugees fleeing wartorn regions, or both, so it’s hard to pick which
of them will speak most to Academy voters. Watani:
My Homeland tells a very personal tale of a widow and her four children
fleeing Aleppo to find a better life as refugees in Germany, and that angle
will probably win out against the objective journalism of 4.1 Miles and The White
Helmets. However, if the three films end up sufficiently splitting the
vote, we might just see Extremis, the
look at whether life-sustaining machinery is worth it for terminal patients,
slip by with a dark horse victory.
Live Action Short Subject
Will Win: Ennemis Intérieurs
Leigh's Pick: Ennemis Intérieurs
Other nominees: La Femme et le TGV; Silent Nights; Sing;
Timecode
This year’s
fictional short subjects cover a wide breadth of subject matter and tones, but
I think the overall best and most poignant is the politically charged Ennemis Intérieurs. Directly
addressing the issues of racism and xenophobia in French immigration and
domestic policy, this is a film that feels too politically prescient to not
win, and in terms of compelling storytelling, this one takes the cake. If
you’re looking for a less serious runner up though, Timecode is
incredibly charming.
Cinematography
Will Win: Lion
Leigh's Pick: Moonlight
Other nominees: Arrival;
La La Land; Silence
Lion may seem like
an odd choice to win until you realize that the American Society of
Cinematographers gave it their top honors, so they must see something in the
film that I do not. La La Land may
squeeze out a win here for how it captured its showy choreographed dance
sequences, but that's not the cinematography I enjoyed most. My pick is
(surprise, surprise) Moonlight, as it
has some of the most narratively illuminating moments driven by a simple shift
in camera perspective, and the graceful, natural movements of the camera are unobtrusive
as they are elegant.
Film Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Moonlight
Other nominees: Arrival;
Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water
See the same reasons as Cinematography. In both La La Land and Moonlight, the editing and camerawork are so closely intertwined
that it's hard to separate the impact that either one independently had on the
film, but in both cases I think Moonlight
is the stronger contender.
Original Score
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Moonlight
Other nominees: Jackie;
Lion; Passengers
This one is obvious, and there's no getting around the fact
that the musical is going to win the music categories. But the haunting and
uplifting notes of Moonlight's score
have really struck a chord with me. Another close contender is the score from Jackie, which is also highly deserving
in its overbearing ominousness.
Original Song
Will Win: "City of Stars" – La La Land
Leigh's Pick: "How Far I'll Go" – Moana
Other nominees: "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" –
La La Land; "Can't Stop the
Feeling" – Trolls; "The
Empty Chair" – Jim: The James Foley
Story
Again, the winner is obvious, but my unpopular opinion here
is that "City of Stars" and "Audition" are among the
weakest tracks from La La Land's
soundtrack. "How Far I'll Go" may not be my favorite song from Moana, but I think it's easily the best
of the nominated selections.
Production Design
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: La La
Land
Other nominees: Arrival;
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; Hail, Caesar!; Passengers
See? I'm not entirely against La La Land! I think the film looks absolutely gorgeous,
particularly in how it knows how to use its color palette to convey a poppy
atmosphere that doesn't lose sight of the real drama at play within it. It
looks great, and definitely deserves to be recognized for that.
Costume Design
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Allied
Other nominees: Fantastic
Beasts and Where to Find Them; Florence Foster Jenkins; Jackie
Quite frankly, La La
Land's nomination baffles me, as the clothes in the film aren't so much
costumes as they are casual hipster dresswear, and that doesn't strike me as
award-worthy, no matter how good the actors look in them. Allied, on the other hand, is a gorgeous period piece that takes
full advantage of World War II style to clothe Marion Cotillard in some of the
finest dresses money can buy.
Visual Effects
Will Win: The Jungle
Book
Leigh's Pick: The
Jungle Book
Other nominees: Deepwater
Horizon; Doctor Strange; Kubo and the Two Strings; Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
They created an entire jungle and near photo-realistic
animals using computers. The answer is obvious.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Star Trek
Beyond
Leigh's Pick: Star
Trek Beyond
Other nominees: A Man
Called Ove; Suicide Squad
I will never understand a contingent of the Academy's
fascination with old age makeup, but A
Man Called Ove just isn't going to win. Between Star Trek Beyond and Suicide
Squad, I sincerely hope that the alien makeup of the former is awarded over
the merely decent looking Killer Croc of the latter. Suicide Squad is a bad enough film that it should have been
snubbed, no matter how good the makeup job was.
Sound Editing
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Arrival
Other nominees: Deepwater
Horizon; Hacksaw Ridge; Sully
Sound Mixing
Will Win: La La Land
Leigh's Pick: Arrival
Other nominees: Hacksaw
Ridge; Rogue One: A Star Wars Story; 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
The Sound Editing and Mixing awards are more likely than not
going to the acclaimed musical, but the ominous tones of Arrival were some of the heaviest beats I felt all year. The alien
sounds and emphasis on auditory stimulus inherent in the narrative were some of
the most investing I've heard all year.
So what do you think? Are my picks on point? Leave a comment
with your thoughts below.
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