Best
Picture
|
Will Win
|
Spotlight
|
Should Win
|
Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
The Big Short
The Martian
Room
|
Wow. What a category this year. With the notable exception of The Revenant, none of these films is
overblown in receiving this nomination, though the exclusion of Carol is definitely
heartbreaking. Realistically, the race
comes down to a contest between Spotlight,
The Big Short, and The Revenant,
and the only way I would be disappointed is if The Revenant walked away with the prize. The
Big Short definitely has gained enough traction to make it a frontrunner,
but my money is still on Spotlight,
if only because I think it is the slightly better film. The fact that Mad Max has received a Best Picture
nod definitely has me happy, though realistically the Academy is extremely
unlikely to unite around it.
|
Best
Director
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Adam McKay – The Big Short
|
This is also a really close race this year, with anyone except for
Abrahamson being an entirely viable win.
I think the Academy will likely split the difference between
recognizing the indie artistry of Spotlight and the brilliantly technical
direction of Mad Max by giving Miller the Best Director award, which he
wholly deserves. But this is still
anyone’s race.
|
Best
Lead Actor
|
Will Win
|
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
|
Should Win
|
Matt Damon – The Martian
|
Also Nominated
|
|
What a truly disappointing year in the Lead Actor category. Redmayne is the most overpraised bad actor
in the business, and Cranston, while good, still hasn’t quite escaped the
shadow of Walter White. Fassbender is
a reasonable choice, but the Academy is definitely going to give DiCaprio the
win to prevent his eventual death-by-performance, even though Damon’s Mark
Whatney is the most human character of the bunch.
|
Best
Lead Actress
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Brie Larson – Room
|
Also Nominated
|
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn
|
On the other hand, with the exception of Lawrence who is merely being
congratulated for existing, the Lead Actress category is amazing this
year. Larson is the frontrunner to be
certain, and I had a really hard time deciding whether she, Blanchett, or
Ronan is the most deserving. If there
is an upset, though, it’ll be Ronan who takes the prize, as Blanchett has won
before and the Academy has a thing for rewarding young female talent.
|
Best
Supporting Actor
|
Will Win
|
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
|
Should Win
|
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
|
Also Nominated
|
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
|
The Supporting Actor race is just about anyone’s game, and the only
one who wouldn’t deserve it is Bale. I
think Rylance is slightly overblown due to his extensive theater career, and
though I called Ruffalo’s nomination from the moment I saw Spotlight, the two most deserving are
Hardy and Stallone, and if I’m honest, I’m inclined toward Stallone because
of the versatility that role allowed him and the fact that it is the only
nomination Creed received.
|
Best
Supporting Actress
|
Will Win
|
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
|
Should Win
|
Rooney Mara - Carol
|
Also Nominated
|
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
|
I hate to say it, but Vikander will probably win for her part in The Danish Girl; she wasn’t bad in
that film, and she’s quite the talented actress, but any recognition that
film gains will only serve to justify its transmisogynistic elements. Leigh is a pretty good candidate as well,
though I think Mara is the most deserving, especially because she is just as
deserving of a Lead Actress nomination as Blanchett, if not more so. The Academy clearly doesn’t know how to
handle two romantic roles of equal prominence when they are of the same sex,
and, to be fair, I’m not sure how you solve that problem.
|
Best
Original Screenplay
|
Will Win
|
Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer - Spotlight
|
Should Win
|
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, & Josh Cooley – Inside Out
|
Also Nominated
|
Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen – Bridge of Spies
|
You may have noticed that until now I haven’t thought Spotlight has what it takes to win
anything other than Best Picture, and this will probably be the category that
the Academy will rally around to justify that win. Spotlight
definitely deserves to be nominated, but Inside
Out’s originality and incredibly thoughtful meditation on emotion and
growing up made it one of my favorite films this year. The other three nominations aren’t bad,
though I do question whether Straight
Outta Compton’s inclusion isn’t more motivated by token Black inclusion
rather than recognition of actual achievement. The African-American film most deserving
recognition this year was Creed,
not a stock-standard biopic with Black protagonists.
|
Best
Adapted Screenplay
|
Will Win
|
Adam McKay & Charles Randolph – The Big Short
|
Should Win
|
Emma Donoghue - Room
|
Also Nominated
|
Drew Goddard – The Martian
Nick Hornby – Brooklyn
Phyllis Nagy - Carol
|
This might be the only category this year where I feel unreservedly
positive about every single nomination.
I have a really hard time picking who I think should win between
Donoghue, Goddard, and Nagy, but I think Room
squeaks ahead just a little based on its unique perspective. The
Big Short is an Academy darling this year, though, so it seems likely
that, if nothing else, McKay and Randolph could walk away with this one. But honestly, this one is anyone’s guess.
|
Best
Animated Feature
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Inside Out
|
Also Nominated
|
Boy and the World
|
Realistically this race comes down to Inside Out and Anomalisa,
and it would be a huge upset of Anomalisa
came from behind, especially considering Inside
Out’s screenplay nomination. And
while I did enjoy Anomalisa, I have
to back my #2 movie of the year. It is
seriously that good.
|
Best
Cinematography
|
Will Win
|
Emanuel Lubezki – The Revenant
|
Should Win
|
John Seale – Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
Ed Lachman – Carol
Robert Richardson – The Hateful Eight
|
Every single one of these cinematographers deserve to be here, but I
am firmly against Lubezki winning in this category for the third time in a
row. Though The Revenant was a gorgeous film, the meditation on the gorgeous
landscapes ended up detracting from the film’s narrative rather than enhance
it. Mad Max, on the other hand, had cinematography that was great
enough to turn the perpetual visual chaos of the chase sequences into some of
the most engaging action ever put to film.
Hopefully Seale can pull through with an upset victory.
|
Best
Film Editing
|
Will Win
|
The Big Short
|
Should Win
|
Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
Spotlight
The Revenant
|
One of the reasons that The Big
Short is so watchable (as is the case with Spotlight) is because the editing made a film primarily about
people talking into a frenetic piece of engaging cinema. However, I still feel obliged to give
greater credit to Mad Max, because
without the spot-on editing working in conjunction with the cinematography,
the film would have fallen apart under its own insanity, and that is an
absolutely monumental task.
|
Best
Production Design
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
The Martian
The Revenant
|
The crazy thing about this year is that it is not entirely dominated
by historical films, with two science fiction films making their way into the
race. Though I have great respect for The Martian and The Revenant in terms of their production (and Bridge of Spies is nothing to laugh at
either), Mad Max’s incredibly dense
world-building was often done wordlessly through the sets and props assembled
by the production team. There is no reality
where Mad Max shouldn’t win this
award, though The Revenant could
potentially sneak up on it.
|
Best
Costume Design
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Jenny Beavan – Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
Paco Delgado – The Danish Girl
Sandy Powell – Carol
Jaqueline West – The Revenant
|
Sandy Powell is usually a frontrunner in this category, since her
costuming is usually elegant and exquisite, and her two nominations are no
exception this year. However, because
she is splitting votes against herself, it seems likely that she will lose
only because the Academy won’t be able to choose one film over the
other. Mad Max is the next runner up, and I think it is probably most
deserving for its incredibly inventive costuming choices, particularly on
Furiosa and Immortan Joe.
|
Best
Original Score
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight
|
Also Nominated
|
Carter Burwell – Carol
Johan Johanssson – Sicario
Thomas Newman – Bridge of Spies
John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
|
If there was one thing I unironically enjoyed about The Hateful Eight, it was the score, a
self-referential set of pieces that jumped from playful to triumphant to
tragic in ways specifically designed to manipulate the audience to dance for
Tarantino’s pleasure. The big
competition against it is probably John Williams, though I think this is
mostly out of nostalgia for his best Star
Wars scores, as I didn’t find this one particularly memorable.
|
Best
Visual Effects
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
|
Also Nominated
|
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
|
I really wrestled with whether I wanted Mad Max or Star Wars to
win more, and I have to give credit to J.J. Abrams’ commitment to practical
effects in bringing Star Wars back to its junkyard universe roots. If Star
Wars doesn’t win, the Academy is going to disregard sci-fi entirely and
give the prize to The Revenant, and
I really don’t want that to happen.
|
Best
Makeup and Hairstyling
|
Will Win/Should Win
|
Mad Max: Fury Road
|
Also Nominated
|
The Revenant
|
Is this even a fair contest?
I’m legitimately surprised that Star
Wars didn’t make the cut, but against these two films, there’s no chance
that Mad Max isn’t walking away
with this one.
|
Best
Sound Mixing
|
Will Win
|
The Revenant
|
Should Win
|
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
|
Also Nominated
|
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
|
Star Wars has always had
some of the best sound design to create the epic feeling of Wookie screams
and spaceships hurtling about, yet I get the feeling that The Revenant will snag this for its
abstract scenes of empty self-reflection.
On principle, I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen.
|
Best
Sound Editing
|
Will Win
|
The Revenant
|
Should Win
|
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
|
Also Nominated
|
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
|
My reasons here are pretty similar to those for Sound Mixing, though
there is definitely a part of me that would not mind seeing one more win for Mad Max. However, considering how much Mad Max is likely to dominate other
technical categories, I think I feel content to root for Star Wars in the sound department.
|