Oscar Predictions and the Best Movies of 2015

It’s that time of year again and I have (mostly) caught up with the major films of 2015, so it’s time to announce my top ten films of 2015 and weigh in on the Oscar race.  First up, my list of the top ten films of 2015.  Of course, I haven’t seen every film of 2015, but I’ve seen a great number of them, some of which I haven’t posted reviews of (yet).  And besides, this is my list, so if you disagree or think I’ve left something out, feel free to leave a respectful comment below.  I won’t go into detail as to why these are my favorite films this year, as most of these will be elaborated upon in the Oscars section, and you can read my original reviews to get my first impressions by clicking the hyperlinked titles below.

1.       Mad Max: Fury Road

2.       Inside Out

3.       The Martian

4.       It Follows

5.       Carol

6.       Room

7.       Creed

8.       Spotlight

9.       Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter

10.   The Big Short

And, without further ado, here are my predictions and thoughts on the 2015 Oscar nominations.  The only film I haven’t seen in the below categories is Boy and the World, and I will not be weighing in on the Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary Feature categories, nor any of the short subject categories, as accessibility is a major issue for me as an amateur critic.  I also won’t be weighing in on the Best Original Song category, because I just really don’t care.

The Academy Awards air on February 28, 2016.

Best Picture
Will Win	Spotlight
Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	The Big Short Bridge of Spies Brooklyn The Martian The Revenant Room
Wow. What a category this year. With the notable exception of The Revenant, none of these films is overblown in receiving this nomination, though the exclusion of Carol is definitely heartbreaking.  Realistically, the race comes down to a contest between Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant, and the only way I would be disappointed is if The Revenant walked away with the prize.  The Big Short definitely has gained enough traction to make it a frontrunner, but my money is still on Spotlight, if only because I think it is the slightly better film. The fact that Mad Max has received a Best Picture nod definitely has me happy, though realistically the Academy is extremely unlikely to unite around it.
Best Director
Will Win/Should Win	George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Lenny Abrahamson – Room Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant Tom McCarthy – Spotlight Adam McKay – The Big Short
This is also a really close race this year, with anyone except for Abrahamson being an entirely viable win.  I think the Academy will likely split the difference between recognizing the indie artistry of Spotlight and the brilliantly technical direction of Mad Max by giving Miller the Best Director award, which he wholly deserves.  But this is still anyone’s race.
Best Lead Actor
Will Win	Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Should Win	Matt Damon – The Martian
Also Nominated	Bryan Cranston – Trumbo Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
What a truly disappointing year in the Lead Actor category.  Redmayne is the most overpraised bad actor in the business, and Cranston, while good, still hasn’t quite escaped the shadow of Walter White.  Fassbender is a reasonable choice, but the Academy is definitely going to give DiCaprio the win to prevent his eventual death-by-performance, even though Damon’s Mark Whatney is the most human character of the bunch.
Best Lead Actress
Will Win/Should Win	Brie Larson – Room
Also Nominated	Cate Blanchett – Carol Jennifer Lawrence – Joy Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn
On the other hand, with the exception of Lawrence who is merely being congratulated for existing, the Lead Actress category is amazing this year.  Larson is the frontrunner to be certain, and I had a really hard time deciding whether she, Blanchett, or Ronan is the most deserving.  If there is an upset, though, it’ll be Ronan who takes the prize, as Blanchett has won before and the Academy has a thing for rewarding young female talent.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win	Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Should Win	Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Also Nominated	Christian Bale – The Big Short Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
The Supporting Actor race is just about anyone’s game, and the only one who wouldn’t deserve it is Bale.  I think Rylance is slightly overblown due to his extensive theater career, and though I called Ruffalo’s nomination from the moment I saw Spotlight, the two most deserving are Hardy and Stallone, and if I’m honest, I’m inclined toward Stallone because of the versatility that role allowed him and the fact that it is the only nomination Creed received.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win	Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Should Win	Rooney Mara - Carol
Also Nominated	Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight Rachel McAdams – Spotlight Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
I hate to say it, but Vikander will probably win for her part in The Danish Girl; she wasn’t bad in that film, and she’s quite the talented actress, but any recognition that film gains will only serve to justify its transmisogynistic elements.  Leigh is a pretty good candidate as well, though I think Mara is the most deserving, especially because she is just as deserving of a Lead Actress nomination as Blanchett, if not more so.  The Academy clearly doesn’t know how to handle two romantic roles of equal prominence when they are of the same sex, and, to be fair, I’m not sure how you solve that problem.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win	Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer - Spotlight
Should Win	Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, & Josh Cooley – Inside Out
Also Nominated	Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen – Bridge of Spies Alex Garland – Ex Machina Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff – Straight Outta Compton
You may have noticed that until now I haven’t thought Spotlight has what it takes to win anything other than Best Picture, and this will probably be the category that the Academy will rally around to justify that win.  Spotlight definitely deserves to be nominated, but Inside Out’s originality and incredibly thoughtful meditation on emotion and growing up made it one of my favorite films this year.  The other three nominations aren’t bad, though I do question whether Straight Outta Compton’s inclusion isn’t more motivated by token Black inclusion rather than recognition of actual achievement.  The African-American film most deserving recognition this year was Creed, not a stock-standard biopic with Black protagonists.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win	Adam McKay & Charles Randolph – The Big Short
Should Win	Emma Donoghue - Room
Also Nominated	Drew Goddard – The Martian Nick Hornby – Brooklyn Phyllis Nagy - Carol
This might be the only category this year where I feel unreservedly positive about every single nomination.  I have a really hard time picking who I think should win between Donoghue, Goddard, and Nagy, but I think Room squeaks ahead just a little based on its unique perspective.  The Big Short is an Academy darling this year, though, so it seems likely that, if nothing else, McKay and Randolph could walk away with this one.  But honestly, this one is anyone’s guess.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win	Inside Out
Also Nominated	Anomalisa Boy and the World Shaun the Sheep Movie When Marnie Was There
Realistically this race comes down to Inside Out and Anomalisa, and it would be a huge upset of Anomalisa came from behind, especially considering Inside Out’s screenplay nomination.  And while I did enjoy Anomalisa, I have to back my #2 movie of the year.  It is seriously that good.
Best Cinematography
Will Win	Emanuel Lubezki – The Revenant
Should Win	John Seale – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Roger Deakins - Sicario Ed Lachman – Carol Robert Richardson – The Hateful Eight
Every single one of these cinematographers deserve to be here, but I am firmly against Lubezki winning in this category for the third time in a row.  Though The Revenant was a gorgeous film, the meditation on the gorgeous landscapes ended up detracting from the film’s narrative rather than enhance it.  Mad Max, on the other hand, had cinematography that was great enough to turn the perpetual visual chaos of the chase sequences into some of the most engaging action ever put to film.  Hopefully Seale can pull through with an upset victory.
Best Film Editing
Will Win	The Big Short
Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Spotlight The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens
One of the reasons that The Big Short is so watchable (as is the case with Spotlight) is because the editing made a film primarily about people talking into a frenetic piece of engaging cinema.  However, I still feel obliged to give greater credit to Mad Max, because without the spot-on editing working in conjunction with the cinematography, the film would have fallen apart under its own insanity, and that is an absolutely monumental task.
Best Production Design
Will Win/Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Bridge of Spies The Danish Girl The Martian The Revenant
The crazy thing about this year is that it is not entirely dominated by historical films, with two science fiction films making their way into the race.  Though I have great respect for The Martian and The Revenant in terms of their production (and Bridge of Spies is nothing to laugh at either), Mad Max’s incredibly dense world-building was often done wordlessly through the sets and props assembled by the production team.  There is no reality where Mad Max shouldn’t win this award, though The Revenant could potentially sneak up on it.
Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win	Jenny Beavan – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Paco Delgado – The Danish Girl Sandy Powell – Carol Sandy Powell – Cinderella Jaqueline West – The Revenant
Sandy Powell is usually a frontrunner in this category, since her costuming is usually elegant and exquisite, and her two nominations are no exception this year.  However, because she is splitting votes against herself, it seems likely that she will lose only because the Academy won’t be able to choose one film over the other.  Mad Max is the next runner up, and I think it is probably most deserving for its incredibly inventive costuming choices, particularly on Furiosa and Immortan Joe.
Best Original Score
Will Win/Should Win	Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight
Also Nominated	Carter Burwell – Carol Johan Johanssson – Sicario Thomas Newman – Bridge of Spies John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
If there was one thing I unironically enjoyed about The Hateful Eight, it was the score, a self-referential set of pieces that jumped from playful to triumphant to tragic in ways specifically designed to manipulate the audience to dance for Tarantino’s pleasure.  The big competition against it is probably John Williams, though I think this is mostly out of nostalgia for his best Star Wars scores, as I didn’t find this one particularly memorable.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Ex Machina Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant
I really wrestled with whether I wanted Mad Max or Star Wars to win more, and I have to give credit to J.J. Abrams’ commitment to practical effects in bringing Star Wars back to its junkyard universe roots.  If Star Wars doesn’t win, the Academy is going to disregard sci-fi entirely and give the prize to The Revenant, and I really don’t want that to happen.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared The Revenant
Is this even a fair contest?  I’m legitimately surprised that Star Wars didn’t make the cut, but against these two films, there’s no chance that Mad Max isn’t walking away with this one.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win	The Revenant
Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Bridge of Spies Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian
Star Wars has always had some of the best sound design to create the epic feeling of Wookie screams and spaceships hurtling about, yet I get the feeling that The Revenant will snag this for its abstract scenes of empty self-reflection.  On principle, I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen.
Best Sound Editing
Will Win	The Revenant
Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian Sicario
My reasons here are pretty similar to those for Sound Mixing, though there is definitely a part of me that would not mind seeing one more win for Mad Max.  However, considering how much Mad Max is likely to dominate other technical categories, I think I feel content to root for Star Wars in the sound department.

And there you have it!  Think my predictions are any good?  Leave your thoughts and counterarguments in the comments below.

"Hail, Caesar!": The Coen Brothers' Greatest Hits

Now In Theaters

If you know me at all, you know that I absolutely adore the Coen Brothers.  A disproportionate amount of their filmography ranks as some of my favorite films ever made, and almost none of their films rank as low as mediocre in my book.  So needless to say, I go into a new Coens film with high hopes and a bit of a bias in favor of loving it.  That said, even I have to walk away from Hail, Caesar! and admit that it is not the Coens’ best work.  It is far from their worst though, and that is head and shoulders above many modern filmmakers.  Furthermore, I think I might understand why this film doesn’t quite reach the usual Coen heights.

Plotwise, the film plays like a greatest hits of Coen-esque tropes and thematic fetishes.  Set in mid-20^th century Hollywood (see Barton Fink), Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) works as a “fixer,” making sure that Capitol Studios’ stars retain a clean public image and doing the dirty work to ensure that happens.  He is suffering a crisis of faith (see A Serious Man) that leaves him wondering if he wants to continue this line of work.  However, when star actor Baird Whitlock (George Clooney) is kidnapped (see Fargo, The Big Lebowski), Eddie must hunt down the parties responsible and bring Baird back to the set.  Along the way, Eddie must also deal with a number of other star problems with an eclectic cast of cameos (see The Big Lebowski, O Brother Where Art Thou?) despite a seeming nihilistic futility to Eddie’s actions (see every Coen Brothers film ever).

This is probably the most absurd film that the Coens have directed since The Hudsucker Proxy, with moments of their trademark bizarre banter juxtaposed with seemingly straight-faced renditions of classical Hollywood stagework, only to have those scenes end in anti-climax without fail.  It’s a film that is effortlessly funny when it is trying to be, and the Coens know how to use the star power at their disposal to amazingly effective degrees.  One moment you will be watching Channing Tatum tap dance his way through an unsubtly gay musical interlude titled “No Dames,” and the next you’ll be witnessing the spectacle of Tilda Swinton as twin gossip columnists who can’t help but protest at how different they are.  They even go so far as using rear projection and mat paintings for backgrounds of key scenes, and the amount of work that went into the production of the stage design and choreography is frankly shocking considering this isn’t a musical, nor primarily filmed on sets.  It’s ridiculous spectacle to say the least, and it is more often than not riotously funny.

But the connective tissue of these moments feels somewhat lacking, as the film often cuts us away from Eddie to follow a character for no real reason other than to show us something amusing that doesn’t ever tie back to the overarching plot.  The film does attempt to tie its disparate threads in the final moments of an explanatory conversation, but it feels like a weak excuse for what is ultimately a series of disconnected episodes.  And that’s precisely what I think the Coens did here; they had a series of comic situations that they wanted to put to film and they did so by emulating the various styles and trappings of classic Hollywood without worrying about an inventive narrative to string it together.

The result is a film that doesn’t really have the thematic depth or lasting memorability that many of the Coens’ other films have had throughout the years, but that doesn’t mean you can’t appreciate Hail, Caesar! for what it is.  It’s an excuse for the Coens to have a little bit of fun with their craft and pay homage to the “Golden Age” of Hollywood while acknowledging the darker aspects of its history at Hollywood’s comic expense.  I consistently laughed quite hard, and that alone made it worth the price of admission.  And, quite frankly, that’s enough for me to offer a solid recommendation.

"Bridge of Spies": Criminally Underappreciated at the Box Office

Now Available on DVD and Blu-ray

Oscar Nominations: 
Best Picture 
Mark Rylance - Best Supporting Actor
Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen - Best Original Screenplay
Best Production Design
Best Sound Mixing

I did not see Bridge of Spies in theaters, and judging by the box office returns, chances are neither did you.  And that’s a damn shame considering that this is Steven Spielberg’s best film as director since Saving Private Ryan.  Late career Spielberg is often criticized for being overly sentimental and placing emphasis on cheesy moments of catharsis, but Bridge of Spies is an incredible exercise in restraint that proves that Spielberg is still one of the best directors of American history, even if he hasn’t quite reached the heights of his early career that made him so beloved.

Set during the Cold War, our story follows James Donovan, a lawyer so idealistic and genuine that only Tom Hanks could make him believable on-screen, which he most admirably does.  Charged with defending a Russian spy (Mark Rylance) tried in American court, Donovan finds himself as one of the most hated men in America for simply doing his job.  He goes above and beyond expectations to the disturbance of his legal peers, which earns him notice by the U.S. government when the opportunity arises to exchange their Russian prisoner for a Russian-held American spy.  Donovan is sent to East Germany to negotiate the exchange when he discovers a U.S. civilian student is also being held prisoner, so he decides to attempt a trade for both the student and the spy against his government’s wishes.

With a script written by the Coen brothers and Matt Charman, Bridge of Spies carefully walks the line between absurdist observation and tense negotiation, and though I would never have thought the Coens to be a good match for Spielberg, I find myself surprised at how effective they work together.  Spielberg strikes the right balance so that the film never slips into outright comedy, yet the wit and irreverence that makes the Coens so entertaining manages to convey the intense gravity of Donovan’s negotiations.  Spielberg is a master of not only directing actors and finding the emotional touchstones of his scripts, but also of the technical aspects of filmmaking, whether it be choices in lighting or framing a shot or the attention to detail in set design and making what amounts to a film about conversations visually engaging.  And remarkably this film doesn’t play to sentimentality as much as it could, remaining hopeful about the ability of people to peacefully settle disputes without ignoring the fact that neither side perceives themselves as the villain.

If the film has one major flaw, it’s that the pacing feels somewhat askew.  The first act comprises of nearly the entire first half of the 140 minute film, setting up Donovan’s defense of his client as well as the hatred and disdain Donovan received from the American people as he performed his legal duty.  This never ceases to be compelling, and establishing Donovan as a pariah is critical to his character arc, but it feels like an odd allocation of comparative time when the focus of the film is primarily upon the tension of the exchange of prisoners, not Donovan’s uphill court battle that is ultimately a loss.

This is a minor quibble, though, and not one that should prevent you from seeing a great film from one of the greats of American cinema.  There’s a reason that Steven Spielberg is a household name, and while the past decade or so may have seen some more pedestrian fare from the esteemed director, Bridge of Spies is proof that he can still make a great movie when it counts.  This may have been a box office flop, but it deserves to live on among the many notable entries in Spielberg’s filmography.