Oscar Predictions and the Best Movies of 2015

It’s that time of year again and I have (mostly) caught up with the major films of 2015, so it’s time to announce my top ten films of 2015 and weigh in on the Oscar race.  First up, my list of the top ten films of 2015.  Of course, I haven’t seen every film of 2015, but I’ve seen a great number of them, some of which I haven’t posted reviews of (yet).  And besides, this is my list, so if you disagree or think I’ve left something out, feel free to leave a respectful comment below.  I won’t go into detail as to why these are my favorite films this year, as most of these will be elaborated upon in the Oscars section, and you can read my original reviews to get my first impressions by clicking the hyperlinked titles below.

1.       Mad Max: Fury Road

2.       Inside Out

3.       The Martian

4.       It Follows

5.       Carol

6.       Room

7.       Creed

8.       Spotlight

9.       Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter

10.   The Big Short

And, without further ado, here are my predictions and thoughts on the 2015 Oscar nominations.  The only film I haven’t seen in the below categories is Boy and the World, and I will not be weighing in on the Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary Feature categories, nor any of the short subject categories, as accessibility is a major issue for me as an amateur critic.  I also won’t be weighing in on the Best Original Song category, because I just really don’t care.

The Academy Awards air on February 28, 2016.

Best Picture
Will Win	Spotlight
Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	The Big Short Bridge of Spies Brooklyn The Martian The Revenant Room
Wow. What a category this year. With the notable exception of The Revenant, none of these films is overblown in receiving this nomination, though the exclusion of Carol is definitely heartbreaking.  Realistically, the race comes down to a contest between Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant, and the only way I would be disappointed is if The Revenant walked away with the prize.  The Big Short definitely has gained enough traction to make it a frontrunner, but my money is still on Spotlight, if only because I think it is the slightly better film. The fact that Mad Max has received a Best Picture nod definitely has me happy, though realistically the Academy is extremely unlikely to unite around it.
Best Director
Will Win/Should Win	George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Lenny Abrahamson – Room Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant Tom McCarthy – Spotlight Adam McKay – The Big Short
This is also a really close race this year, with anyone except for Abrahamson being an entirely viable win.  I think the Academy will likely split the difference between recognizing the indie artistry of Spotlight and the brilliantly technical direction of Mad Max by giving Miller the Best Director award, which he wholly deserves.  But this is still anyone’s race.
Best Lead Actor
Will Win	Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Should Win	Matt Damon – The Martian
Also Nominated	Bryan Cranston – Trumbo Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
What a truly disappointing year in the Lead Actor category.  Redmayne is the most overpraised bad actor in the business, and Cranston, while good, still hasn’t quite escaped the shadow of Walter White.  Fassbender is a reasonable choice, but the Academy is definitely going to give DiCaprio the win to prevent his eventual death-by-performance, even though Damon’s Mark Whatney is the most human character of the bunch.
Best Lead Actress
Will Win/Should Win	Brie Larson – Room
Also Nominated	Cate Blanchett – Carol Jennifer Lawrence – Joy Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years Saorise Ronan - Brooklyn
On the other hand, with the exception of Lawrence who is merely being congratulated for existing, the Lead Actress category is amazing this year.  Larson is the frontrunner to be certain, and I had a really hard time deciding whether she, Blanchett, or Ronan is the most deserving.  If there is an upset, though, it’ll be Ronan who takes the prize, as Blanchett has won before and the Academy has a thing for rewarding young female talent.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win	Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Should Win	Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Also Nominated	Christian Bale – The Big Short Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
The Supporting Actor race is just about anyone’s game, and the only one who wouldn’t deserve it is Bale.  I think Rylance is slightly overblown due to his extensive theater career, and though I called Ruffalo’s nomination from the moment I saw Spotlight, the two most deserving are Hardy and Stallone, and if I’m honest, I’m inclined toward Stallone because of the versatility that role allowed him and the fact that it is the only nomination Creed received.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win	Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Should Win	Rooney Mara - Carol
Also Nominated	Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight Rachel McAdams – Spotlight Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
I hate to say it, but Vikander will probably win for her part in The Danish Girl; she wasn’t bad in that film, and she’s quite the talented actress, but any recognition that film gains will only serve to justify its transmisogynistic elements.  Leigh is a pretty good candidate as well, though I think Mara is the most deserving, especially because she is just as deserving of a Lead Actress nomination as Blanchett, if not more so.  The Academy clearly doesn’t know how to handle two romantic roles of equal prominence when they are of the same sex, and, to be fair, I’m not sure how you solve that problem.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win	Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer - Spotlight
Should Win	Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, & Josh Cooley – Inside Out
Also Nominated	Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen – Bridge of Spies Alex Garland – Ex Machina Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff – Straight Outta Compton
You may have noticed that until now I haven’t thought Spotlight has what it takes to win anything other than Best Picture, and this will probably be the category that the Academy will rally around to justify that win.  Spotlight definitely deserves to be nominated, but Inside Out’s originality and incredibly thoughtful meditation on emotion and growing up made it one of my favorite films this year.  The other three nominations aren’t bad, though I do question whether Straight Outta Compton’s inclusion isn’t more motivated by token Black inclusion rather than recognition of actual achievement.  The African-American film most deserving recognition this year was Creed, not a stock-standard biopic with Black protagonists.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win	Adam McKay & Charles Randolph – The Big Short
Should Win	Emma Donoghue - Room
Also Nominated	Drew Goddard – The Martian Nick Hornby – Brooklyn Phyllis Nagy - Carol
This might be the only category this year where I feel unreservedly positive about every single nomination.  I have a really hard time picking who I think should win between Donoghue, Goddard, and Nagy, but I think Room squeaks ahead just a little based on its unique perspective.  The Big Short is an Academy darling this year, though, so it seems likely that, if nothing else, McKay and Randolph could walk away with this one.  But honestly, this one is anyone’s guess.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win/Should Win	Inside Out
Also Nominated	Anomalisa Boy and the World Shaun the Sheep Movie When Marnie Was There
Realistically this race comes down to Inside Out and Anomalisa, and it would be a huge upset of Anomalisa came from behind, especially considering Inside Out’s screenplay nomination.  And while I did enjoy Anomalisa, I have to back my #2 movie of the year.  It is seriously that good.
Best Cinematography
Will Win	Emanuel Lubezki – The Revenant
Should Win	John Seale – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Roger Deakins - Sicario Ed Lachman – Carol Robert Richardson – The Hateful Eight
Every single one of these cinematographers deserve to be here, but I am firmly against Lubezki winning in this category for the third time in a row.  Though The Revenant was a gorgeous film, the meditation on the gorgeous landscapes ended up detracting from the film’s narrative rather than enhance it.  Mad Max, on the other hand, had cinematography that was great enough to turn the perpetual visual chaos of the chase sequences into some of the most engaging action ever put to film.  Hopefully Seale can pull through with an upset victory.
Best Film Editing
Will Win	The Big Short
Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Spotlight The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens
One of the reasons that The Big Short is so watchable (as is the case with Spotlight) is because the editing made a film primarily about people talking into a frenetic piece of engaging cinema.  However, I still feel obliged to give greater credit to Mad Max, because without the spot-on editing working in conjunction with the cinematography, the film would have fallen apart under its own insanity, and that is an absolutely monumental task.
Best Production Design
Will Win/Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Bridge of Spies The Danish Girl The Martian The Revenant
The crazy thing about this year is that it is not entirely dominated by historical films, with two science fiction films making their way into the race.  Though I have great respect for The Martian and The Revenant in terms of their production (and Bridge of Spies is nothing to laugh at either), Mad Max’s incredibly dense world-building was often done wordlessly through the sets and props assembled by the production team.  There is no reality where Mad Max shouldn’t win this award, though The Revenant could potentially sneak up on it.
Best Costume Design
Will Win/Should Win	Jenny Beavan – Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	Paco Delgado – The Danish Girl Sandy Powell – Carol Sandy Powell – Cinderella Jaqueline West – The Revenant
Sandy Powell is usually a frontrunner in this category, since her costuming is usually elegant and exquisite, and her two nominations are no exception this year.  However, because she is splitting votes against herself, it seems likely that she will lose only because the Academy won’t be able to choose one film over the other.  Mad Max is the next runner up, and I think it is probably most deserving for its incredibly inventive costuming choices, particularly on Furiosa and Immortan Joe.
Best Original Score
Will Win/Should Win	Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight
Also Nominated	Carter Burwell – Carol Johan Johanssson – Sicario Thomas Newman – Bridge of Spies John Williams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens
If there was one thing I unironically enjoyed about The Hateful Eight, it was the score, a self-referential set of pieces that jumped from playful to triumphant to tragic in ways specifically designed to manipulate the audience to dance for Tarantino’s pleasure.  The big competition against it is probably John Williams, though I think this is mostly out of nostalgia for his best Star Wars scores, as I didn’t find this one particularly memorable.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win/Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Ex Machina Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant
I really wrestled with whether I wanted Mad Max or Star Wars to win more, and I have to give credit to J.J. Abrams’ commitment to practical effects in bringing Star Wars back to its junkyard universe roots.  If Star Wars doesn’t win, the Academy is going to disregard sci-fi entirely and give the prize to The Revenant, and I really don’t want that to happen.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win/Should Win	Mad Max: Fury Road
Also Nominated	The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared The Revenant
Is this even a fair contest?  I’m legitimately surprised that Star Wars didn’t make the cut, but against these two films, there’s no chance that Mad Max isn’t walking away with this one.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win	The Revenant
Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Bridge of Spies Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian
Star Wars has always had some of the best sound design to create the epic feeling of Wookie screams and spaceships hurtling about, yet I get the feeling that The Revenant will snag this for its abstract scenes of empty self-reflection.  On principle, I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen.
Best Sound Editing
Will Win	The Revenant
Should Win	Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Also Nominated	Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian Sicario
My reasons here are pretty similar to those for Sound Mixing, though there is definitely a part of me that would not mind seeing one more win for Mad Max.  However, considering how much Mad Max is likely to dominate other technical categories, I think I feel content to root for Star Wars in the sound department.

And there you have it!  Think my predictions are any good?  Leave your thoughts and counterarguments in the comments below.